- Julian Lin shares why we’re absolutely in a bubble once again and why valuation is essential to any investment thesis.
- Palantir’s stock has soared, but its valuation remains a concern.
- Analysis of Palantir’s stock-based compensation and its impact on valuation.
Julian Lin shares why we’re absolutely in a bubble once again and why valuation is essential to any investment thesis (1:20). Palantir soaring this week, but valuation matters (7:15). Analyzing Palantir’s stock-based compensation (16:30). Failing valuation grade and fairly valued price target (22:00).
Transcript
Rena Sherbill: Julian Lin, always great to have you on Seeking Alpha. Welcome back to Investing Experts.
Julian Lin: Yes, it’s been a while since our last one, so excited to be back, Rena.
RS: It’s great to have you back. You run the investing group called Best Of Breed Growth Stocks. So let’s start there. What you’re looking at, as you talk to investors, as you talk to your investing community, what are you most focused on these days at the beginning of February 2025?
JL: Yes. And I think we previously met two times recently. Last time I discussed Reddit (RDDT) as being my top conviction pick.
And before then I think it was early 2023. I had said that this is not a bubble, even though tech stocks had already recovered substantially. I still saw upside ahead, and yes, I mean, tech stocks have performed quite well since then.
But I think it’s quite fitting that today, I come with a more bearish tone where I believe that this is absolutely a bubble once again. So that I think nowadays, we’re focusing more on risk management and really identifying a lot of these bubbly opportunities.
RS: So you’re talking about the market in general being in a bubble?
JL: Of course, there’s going to be certain names that are not in a bubble and – but the main idea is just in general, when you look at current market conditions today, they very much resemble what we saw in 2021, right before that vicious crash in tech stocks in 2022. And so the idea is just I anticipate there to be some similar kind of volatility as we saw back then just based on the similarities we’re seeing today with at that moment.
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