Iowa Is an 89% Match with U.S. Demographics & Predicts 64% of Democratic Nominees – WalletHub Study

With the Iowa caucuses heating up the 2024 presidential race, the personal finance website WalletHub compared Iowa’s demographic characteristics and public opinions against that of the U.S. to answer: How Closely Does Iowa Resemble the U.S.? Our data set of 22 key measures includes sociodemographic, economic, educational and religious metrics as well as public stances on certain issues.

Key Findings

  •  The Overall Resemblance Index for Iowa is 89.
    • Sociodemographics: 84
    • Economics: 89
    • Education: 92
    • Religion: 87
    • Public Opinion: 91
  • 63.6% of Iowa-caucus winners have won the Democratic Party nomination and 44.4% the Republican Party nomination. The Iowa caucuses, therefore, are a much better predictor of advancement for Democrats than for Republicans.
  • Iowa least resembles the U.S. in terms of race, with a 50.00 percent difference; religious composition, with a 74.52 percent difference; wealth gap, with a 76.41 percent difference; and employment by industry, with an 80.30 percent difference.
  • Iowa most resembles the U.S. in terms of mean work hours, with a 99.48 percent similarity; unemployment rate, with a 99.10 percent similarity; school enrollment, with a 99.02 percent similarity; and importance of religion in one’s life, with a 99.00 percent similarity.