
Summary
- I am assigning a sell rating to Altimmune.
- The discontinuation rates in MOMENTUM and lack of glucose control benefits raise concerns about the success of Pemvidutide.
- Altimmune’s pipeline is young and faces strong competition in the GLP-1 market, as well as challenges in the NASH space.
- Shareholder dilution is another tangible risk that prospective investors will likely have to grapple with.
Introduction
Shares of Altimmune (NASDAQ:ALT) surged last Thursday during after-hours trading following the release of positive data from MOMENTUM, which is a phase two trial evaluating the effect of their GLP-1/glucagon dual receptor agonist (Pemvidutide) as a treatment for obesity. The top-line data were strongly positive. A dose-dependent and statistically significant weight loss reduction was shown. There were no major adverse events, and the discontinuation rate for placebo exceeded that of the treatment arms. At face value, this looks like a home-run.
Yet still, the stock slid from ~$5.80 from the first initial market open to ~$4.50 as of the time of writing. Investors seem broadly optimistic, yet, there may be more than meets the eye with Pemvidutide.